Will the U.S. and Iran publicly say they've concluded a bilateral agreement on managing the Strait of Hormuz?

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YES if the official transcript or full video of Claudia Sheinbaum’s Segundo Informe de Gobierno delivered on September 1, 2026 contains at least one explicit, attributable statement by Sheinbaum that names Andrés Manuel López Beltrán (or “Andy” López Beltrán) and explicitly says his U.S. visa was cancelled, revoked, or similar. Resolution will use the official transcript or video published by the Office of the President (Presidencia de la República / Palacio Nacional), with corroboration acceptable from major Mexican outlets such as El Universal, Reforma, or Milenio. If the speech scheduled for September 1, 2026 is publicly postponed or cancelled, the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 1, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 2, 2026. The outcome will be settled against eluniversal.com.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 55%, based on 6 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledI doubt Sheinbaum will mention López Beltrán's visa in her report. With only 13 days left and no leaks suggesting such a statement, it seems unlikely she’ll make that explicit comment.

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42%
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42%
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31%
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29%
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27%
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