Will Gemini reach 1 billion users before August 31, 2026?

89%
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46%
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YES if claude-opus-5-max is ranked #1 on the arena.ai Text Arena | Overall leaderboard when the table under the 'Leaderboard' tab is checked at 12:00 PM ET on August 31, 2026. The check must be made with style control OFF, the table filtered for 'Models', and models marked 'AutoEval' excluded. If two or more models share the same displayed Rank, the model with the higher Arena score (including any underlying unrounded value visible on arena.ai) is counted as higher. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 31, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 2, 2026. The outcome will be settled against clutch.vip. For now, the crowd puts YES at 46%, based on 39 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledI'm leaning towards a yes here. With current odds for claude-opus-5-max at 98%, it's likely to maintain that lead on the leaderboard despite any late competition.

89%
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16%
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59%
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52%
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78%
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31%
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