Will Gemini reach 1 billion users before August 31, 2026?

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YES if claude-opus-5-high is ranked #1 on the arena.ai Text Arena | Overall leaderboard when the leaderboard table is checked at 12:00 PM ET on August 31, 2026, with style control OFF and the table filtered for "Models". Models marked "AutoEval" at that check time are excluded. If two or more models share the same displayed rank, the model with the higher Arena score, including any underlying unrounded value visible on arena.ai, is counted as higher; otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 31, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 2, 2026. The outcome will be settled against clutch.vip. For now, the crowd puts YES at 59%, based on 26 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven current predictions, claude-opus-5-high is highly favored to rank #1. Odds on Polymarket show a solid 98% likelihood for Anthropic's model to lead, making this a likely yes.

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46%
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52%
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78%
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