Will OpenAI release GPT-6?

79%
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65%
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YES if, when the arena.ai "Text Arena | Overall" leaderboard is checked at 12:00 PM ET on September 14, 2026, with style control off and filtered for "Models", the model "claude-fable-5.1-max" occupies the top position in the "Rank" column. Models marked "AutoEval" at that check time are excluded. If two or more models share the exact top Rank, the market resolves YES if "claude-fable-5.1-max" is among the tied top models, otherwise NO. The authoritative source is the arena.ai "Text Arena | Overall" leaderboard.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 14, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 16, 2026. The outcome will be settled against clutch.vip. For now, the crowd puts YES at 65%, based on 18 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven current trends and a 62% chance of 'claude-fable-5.1-max' being the top model, it looks strong. Barring unexpected changes, expect it to hold that spot on the 14th.

79%
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88%
Stable · last 24h

72%
Stable · last 24h

66%
Stable · last 24h

80%
Stable · last 24h

78%
Stable · last 24h
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