Will the birth of a child to Lady Gaga and Michael Polansky be publicly confirmed?

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Resolved: Yes
Results Sep 29The rule required that on September 28, 2026 (Mexico City local date) the official Cinépolis or Cinemex website show a live public pre-sale page for Avengers: Doomsday that offers the Infinity Vision format and accepts public reservations or purchases. Multiple Mexican news outlets, including ADN40, SDP Noticias, Diario.mx and LifeandStyle, reported that on Monday, September 28, 2026 a public presale opened for Infinity Vision and that the chains' official sales channels, including sites, apps and box offices, were selling or taking reservations, with some outlets reporting site and app outages from high demand. Those contemporaneous reports show at least one of the chains had a live public presale page offering Infinity Vision and accepting public purchases or reservations on that date, so the market resolves yes.
How markets are built and settled62%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 62% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Multiple independent news outlets report that the public presale for Avengers: Doomsday opened on Monday 2026-09-28 in Mexico exclusively for Infinity Vision. Reports from ADN40, SDP Noticias, Diario.mx and LifeandStyle (among others) state that Cinépolis and Cinemex announced the 28 Sep presale and that their public ticketing channels (apps/sites/online purchase pages and taquillas) were used to sell or allow reservations for Infinity Vision seats that day (several outlets also report site/app outages due to demand). Those independent contemporaneous reports corroborate that at least one of the chains had a live public presale ticketing page on 2026-09-28 offering Infinity Vision and allowing members of the public to reserve/purchase tickets.
Source: adn40.mxSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledIt's unlikely that Cinépolis or Cinemex will have a presale page ready in such a short window. They usually take longer to announce major releases.

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