Will Canada impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods on September 8?

73%
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40%
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YES if no later than September 1, 2026 the U.S. government publicly confirms in an official statement, press release, or on-the-record spokesperson quote attributable to the White House, the CIA, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, or the State Department that CIA Director John Ratcliffe met with Russian intelligence counterparts in Moscow. YES also if two or more independent major news organizations (for example AP and Reuters) report that the U.S. government has publicly made such a confirmation. NO if U.S. officials publicly say Ratcliffe traveled to Moscow but explicitly deny meetings with Russian intelligence, or if only Russian/Kremlin sources claim the meeting with no U.S. confirmation reported by the required outlets.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 2, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 2, 2026. The outcome will be settled against apnews.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 40%, based on 0 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledNo chance Ratcliffe officially meets with Russian intel in Moscow. The U.S. will likely avoid confirming any direct interactions before the deadline, especially with high tensions.

73%
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57%
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44%
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60%
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66%
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53%
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