Will Chile be hit by an earthquake of magnitude 5.1 or greater?

🤖 Context

YES if the USGS earthquake catalog records at least one earthquake with reported magnitude ≥ 5.1 and origin time on or after 00:00 UTC on September 9, 2026 and no later than 00:00 UTC on September 12, 2026, that the USGS lists as occurring in Chile. Magnitude equal to 5.1 counts. Otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 9, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 12, 2026. The outcome will be settled against earthquake.usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 16%, based on 78 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

16%

Predictions made

78

Credits staked

2,036

Comments

0

Opened

Sep 8, 2026

Closes

Sep 9, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 12, 2026

Resolution source

earthquake.usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 9, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 12, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 16% and NO 84%, based on 78 predictions and 2K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against earthquake.usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Chile be hit by an earthquake of magnitude 5.1 or greater?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Chile be hit by an earthquake of magnitude 5.1 or greater?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.