Will a majority of valid votes in Guinea-Bissau's August 30 referendum be 'Yes' to give the president expanded powers?

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YES if, no later than September 2, 2026, Chevron publicly issues an official announcement that it will expand its operations in Venezuela, and that announcement is corroborated by reporting from two or more independent major news organizations (for example AP, Reuters, Bloomberg). Acceptable announcements include a Chevron press release, an SEC filing, a statement on Chevron’s corporate website, or a public statement by the U.S. or Venezuelan government saying Chevron will increase production, reopen or bring additional fields into production, sign a binding joint‑venture or production‑sharing agreement, or otherwise commit to a concrete expansion plan. Otherwise NO. Unverified leaks, speculation, or non‑binding expressions of interest without a Chevron or government announcement do not count.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 2, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 3, 2026. The outcome will be settled against apnews.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 54%, based on 35 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledWith just hours left, the likelihood of Chevron making a concrete announcement is slim. The situation in Venezuela is too volatile for such commitments right now.

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57%
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