Will North Korea launch a ballistic missile or publicly declare a weapons test?

37%
Stable · last 24h

26%
Stable · last 24h
YES if two or more independent authoritative news outlets report that, no later than September 30, 2026, the national Spanish Government (a Moncloa spokesperson, the Prime Minister, the Interior Minister, or another named member of the national government) publicly announced a specific calendar date (day, month and year) for 'the return to normality' in Ceuta. Vague statements without a concrete calendar date do not count. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 30, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against efe.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 26%, based on 2 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven that we're just a few weeks from the deadline and no substantial announcements have emerged, it's highly unlikely we'll see a specific date. This is a NO.

37%
Stable · last 24h

59%
Stable · last 24h

49%
Stable · last 24h

79%
+16% last 24h

43%
-3% last 24h

48%
+10% last 24h
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