Will North Korea launch a ballistic missile or publicly declare a weapons test?

31%
-6% last 24h

48%
Stable · last 24h
YES if, no later than September 22, 2026, two or more independent authoritative news outlets report that the Government of Ceuta publicly announced, approved, authorized, or signed an agreement to allow construction of a temporary migrant reception centre/camp specifically in Ceuta's port area ('zona del puerto'). Reports that only say the government 'maintains a collaborative attitude', is 'open to finding spaces', or that a camp is being considered at other locations do not count. Reports should preferably cite an official Government of Ceuta press release as supporting evidence. Otherwise the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 21, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 23, 2026. The outcome will be settled against efe.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 48%, based on 7 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the timeline, it's unlikely the Government of Ceuta will make a definitive announcement before the deadline. The political climate suggests hesitation rather than commitment.

31%
-6% last 24h

26%
Stable · last 24h

43%
Stable · last 24h

76%
Stable · last 24h

69%
+6% last 24h

61%
+11% last 24h
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