Will Tadej Pogačar win the Vuelta a España overall?

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YES if the official US Open 2026 men's singles draws/results page lists Carlos Alcaraz among the eight quarterfinalists no later than 11:59 PM on September 7, 2026 Eastern Daylight Time. Walkovers, opponent retirements, and wins awarded by default count if the official draw shows Alcaraz as advancing. The market will be resolved using the official US Open draws/results page, with the ATP Tour draws/results page and ordinary news reporting acceptable for corroboration.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 1, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 8, 2026. The outcome will be settled against espn.co.uk. For now, the crowd puts YES at 72%, based on 3 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledAlcaraz is a solid bet for the quarterfinals; with just a week to go, he's proven too strong for most, and any slip-ups could be offset by retirements or walkovers.

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92%
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