Will Israel and Hamas publicly agree to a ceasefire with a stated start time?

10%
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46%
Stable · last 24h
YES if on September 8, 2026 Canada has a legally effective measure imposing duties or other retaliatory customs tariffs on goods originating in the United States that match the retaliatory tariffs described in the AP story, shown either by an official Government of Canada publication or notice (for example Canada Gazette or a Canada Border Services Agency notice) or by credible reporting from two or more independent authoritative news organizations (for example AP, Reuters, CBC, Globe and Mail). Otherwise NO. If Ottawa implements only a different action that is not an imposition of duties (for example only a symbolic statement, a study, or an announced but postponed implementation) or delays implementation past September 8, 2026, the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 8, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 9, 2026. The outcome will be settled against apnews.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 46%, based on 42 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledIt seems unlikely Canada will impose retaliatory tariffs by September 8. With just over two weeks left, there's been no solid indication from credible sources that this will happen.

10%
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55%
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27%
Stable · last 24h

25%
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33%
-19% last 24h

76%
+1% last 24h
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