Will the birth of a child to Lady Gaga and Michael Polansky be publicly confirmed?

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65%
Stable · last 24h
Resolved: Yes
Results Sep 25The market required that at least one cinema complex physically located in Mexico have at least one scheduled public, paid screening of 'Avengers: Endgame Encore' on September 24, 2026, with tickets available to the general public online or at the box office. Multiple Mexican outlets reported the re-release for that date and that ticket sales were active, with Mediotiempo specifically saying presales were already live for Cinépolis and Cinemex and El Financiero and Diario de Morelos confirming showtimes on or for 24 September 2026. Because those contemporaneous reports show at least one Mexico-based cinema had paid screenings with tickets available on 24 September 2026, the market resolves to yes.
How markets are built and settled65%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 65% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Multiple independent Mexican outlets contemporaneously reported that Avengers: Endgame: Encore was being shown in Mexico on 24 September 2026 and that tickets/preventa were available at major Mexican chains. Mediotiempo states the re-release is on 24 September and that “La preventa de boletos … ya está activa, tanto para las salas de Cinépolis como de Cinemex.” El Financiero reported the preventa began and “algunas sucursales ya muestran funciones para el reestreno.” Diario de Morelos (dated 2026-09-24) likewise reports the re-release is in Mexican cinemas on 24 September and advises consulting local cartelera to secure seats. Enfoque Monterrey and GrupoAnimal also report the Mexico release and theatre availability. These independent, same-day/nearby reports establish that at least one cinema complex physically located in Mexico had at least one scheduled public, paid screening on 2026-09-24 for which tickets were available to the general public online or at the box office.
Source: mediotiempo.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the upcoming date and the trend for encore screenings, it's likely there will be at least one public showing in Mexico. I'm betting YES on this one.

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