Will August 2026 be the warmest August on record worldwide?

🤖 Context

YES if at least one major global climate monitoring agency publicly reports that August 2026 had the highest global average surface temperature of any August on record in that agency's dataset, otherwise NO. Major agencies are NOAA NCEI (preferred), NASA GISS, and ECMWF/ERA5. If an agency explicitly reports "tied for warmest" or equivalent wording, count that agency as YES only if it uses that exact phrasing.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 31, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 5, 2026. The outcome will be settled against tf1info.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 37%, based on 58 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

37%

Predictions made

58

Credits staked

1,323

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 19, 2026

Closes

Aug 31, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 5, 2026

Resolution source

tf1info.fr

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 31, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 5, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 37% and NO 63%, based on 58 predictions and 1.3K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against tf1info.fr once the outcome is known.

Is “Will August 2026 be the warmest August on record worldwide?” real-money betting?

No. “Will August 2026 be the warmest August on record worldwide?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.