Will at least one person arrested in the recent raids on LGBTQ organizations be charged with a crime?

🤖 Context

YES if, no later than October 1, 2026, an official Turkish public prosecutor statement or credible reporting by two or more independent international news organizations confirms that criminal charges or a court indictment were filed against one or more people arrested in the raids described in the Tagesschau article. Administrative measures, deportations, expulsions, or non‑criminal penalties do not count. Otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 30, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 2, 2026. The outcome will be settled against tagesschau.de. For now, the crowd puts YES at 78%, based on 165 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

78%

Predictions made

165

Credits staked

4,269

Comments

2

Opened

Sep 16, 2026

Closes

Sep 30, 2026

Expected resolution

Oct 2, 2026

Resolution source

tagesschau.de

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 30, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Oct 2, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 78% and NO 22%, based on 165 predictions and 4.3K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against tagesschau.de once the outcome is known.

Is “Will at least one person arrested in the recent raids on LGBTQ organizations be charged with a crime?” real-money betting?

No. “Will at least one person arrested in the recent raids on LGBTQ organizations be charged with a crime?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.