Will the US publicly say it carried out a strike inside Iran or on Iranian government facilities by 12:00 PM on August 16, 2026 (Eastern US time)?

32%
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26%
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YES if at least one of the three regional vice-presidents described as "los vicepresidentes de Vox de Extremadura, Aragón y Castilla y León" is publicly recorded as attending the Comisión Sectorial de Infancia y Adolescencia meeting held on August 13, 2026. Recorded as attending means the person appears on the commission's official minutes or attendance list, or an official press release from the convening Ministry explicitly states their participation in person or remotely. The commission's official minutes or a press release from the convening Ministry are the primary resolution sources, with corroboration allowed from major Spanish news outlets such as EFE, RTVE or El País. If the meeting does not take place on August 13, 2026, the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 13, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 13, 2026. The outcome will be settled against efe.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 26%, based on 12 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledWith only three days to go and no sign that the meeting will be canceled, at least one vice-president will likely show up—official records will confirm it. Bet on a YES.

32%
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70%
+5% last 24h

19%
-3% last 24h

42%
Stable · last 24h

21%
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59%
Stable · last 24h
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