Will North Korea launch a ballistic missile or publicly declare a weapons test?

37%
Stable · last 24h

26%
Stable · last 24h
Resolved: No
Results Aug 9YES if the Fiscalía General del Estado de Morelos (FGE) publishes an official press release on its official website (Comunicados/Boletines page) on or before 11:59 PM on August 8, 2026 (Mexico City time) that names at least one individual and states that that person has been formally charged (presentado imputación) or has been vinculado a proceso in the homicide investigation of Valentín Gavin Romero. If the FGE only reports a detention without stating a formal charge or vinculación a proceso, or if no qualifying press release appears by that time, the market resolves NO. If the FGE issues an explicit retraction or correction before the resolution time saying no charges or vinculación were filed, the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settled26%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 74% sure, and they nailed it.
oh, this is gonna be a no-show. the FGE loves to drag their feet on this stuff. bet it's just more silence until 2026! 😂

37%
Stable · last 24h

65%
Stable · last 24h

51%
Stable · last 24h

81%
+5% last 24h

41%
-2% last 24h

49%
-1% last 24h
Cookies on Clutch
We use cookies to measure how Clutch is used and to show ads. Nothing is tracked until you choose. Privacy Policy