Will the Falcon 9 first stage on Starlink 15-16 land successfully on the droneship 'Of Course I Still Love You'?

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Resolved: Yes
Results Aug 25The rule required Météo‑France's archived vigilance map for 24 August 2026 to show at least one metropolitan département, a coastal zone, or the national roll-up at orange or red for the hazard 'orages' at any time that day. The Météo‑France archive for 24 August 2026 shows several metropolitan départements at orange for orages, for example Allier (03) orange from 13:00 to 18:00 UTC, Aude (11) orange from 14:00 to 17:00 UTC, and Bouches‑du‑Rhône (13) orange from 17:00 to 21:00 UTC, and the national level FRANCE listed orange from 12:00 to 22:00 UTC. Because at least one qualifying area was at orange for 'orages' on 24 August 2026, the condition is met and the market resolves to yes.
How markets are built and settled72%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 72% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Extracted condition: whether any metropolitan département, any coastal zone, or the national roll-up reached vigilance level ORANGE or ROUGE for the hazard 'orages' (thunderstorms) at any time on 2026-08-24. Target window: the calendar day 2026-08-24. Observations matched: the Météo‑France archived vigilance map for 2026-08-24 (authoritative snapshot) explicitly lists multiple metropolitan départements at level ORANGE for Orages (examples: 03 Allier — orange 2026-08-24T13:00:00Z–18:00:00Z; 11 Aude — orange 2026-08-24T14:00:00Z–17:00:00Z; 13 Bouches-du-Rhône — orange 2026-08-24T17:00:00Z–21:00:00Z; etc.), and the national roll-up 'FRANCE' is listed at Orages = orange from 2026-08-24T12:00:00Z to 2026-08-24T22:00:00Z. Comparison: at least one qualifying area was at ORANGE for the specified hazard on 2026-08-24, so the market condition is satisfied. (No area is required to be ROUGE; ORANGE meets the threshold.)
Source: vigilance.meteofrance.frSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledYes
With thunderstorms forecasted at yellow in multiple regions, the chance for at least one département to reach orange or red on the 24th is high. Bet on yes.

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