Will at least one metropolitan French département be on 'vigilance orange' (heightened alert) or 'rouge' (maximum alert) for thunderstorms on August 24?

🤖 Context

YES if Météo‑France's archived vigilance map for 24 August 2026 shows at least one metropolitan département, a coastal zone, or the national roll-up at level orange or red for the hazard 'orages' (thunderstorms) at any time on 24 August 2026, otherwise NO. Only the 'orages' hazard counts. The separate wildfire product does not count. The primary source is Météo‑France, and if their official record is unavailable, contemporaneous reputable reports that quote Météo‑France may be used.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 23, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 25, 2026. The outcome will be settled against vigilance.meteofrance.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 63%, based on 107 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

63%

Predictions made

107

Credits staked

3,785

Comments

2

Opened

Aug 23, 2026

Closes

Aug 23, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 25, 2026

Resolution source

vigilance.meteofrance.fr

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 23, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 25, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 63% and NO 37%, based on 107 predictions and 3.8K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against vigilance.meteofrance.fr once the outcome is known.

Is “Will at least one metropolitan French département be on 'vigilance orange' (heightened alert) or 'rouge' (maximum alert) for thunderstorms on August 24?” real-money betting?

No. “Will at least one metropolitan French département be on 'vigilance orange' (heightened alert) or 'rouge' (maximum alert) for thunderstorms on August 24?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.