Will at least one metropolitan French département be on orange or red heatwave alert on August 16?

🤖 Context

YES if Météo‑France's official Vigilance archived map for 16 August 2026 shows at least one metropolitan French département, a coastal zone, or the national "FRANCE" roll‑up at orange or red for the heatwave (canicule) hazard at any time during 16 August 2026. Overseas departments and territories do not count unless the national "FRANCE" roll‑up or a metropolitan département/coastal zone is also shown at orange or red. Only the heatwave (canicule) hazard counts; the wildfire product does not qualify.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 15, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 17, 2026. The outcome will be settled against vigilance.meteofrance.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 88%, based on 145 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

88%

Predictions made

145

Credits staked

4,438

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 15, 2026

Closes

Aug 15, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 17, 2026

Resolution source

vigilance.meteofrance.fr

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 15, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 17, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 88% and NO 12%, based on 145 predictions and 4.4K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against vigilance.meteofrance.fr once the outcome is known.

Is “Will at least one metropolitan French département be on orange or red heatwave alert on August 16?” real-money betting?

No. “Will at least one metropolitan French département be on orange or red heatwave alert on August 16?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.