Will at least one French metropolitan département be on orange or red alert for thunderstorms on 17 August?

🤖 Context

YES if Météo‑France's official Vigilance archive map for 17 August 2026 shows at least one metropolitan French département, a metropolitan coastal vigilance zone, or the national roll-up "FRANCE" at orange (level 3) or red (level 4) for the hazard "thunderstorms" at any time during 17 August 2026. Otherwise NO. Only the thunderstorms hazard counts; overseas departments and territories do not count unless a metropolitan département, a metropolitan coastal zone, or the national roll-up are shown orange or red for thunderstorms.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 16, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 18, 2026. The outcome will be settled against vigilance.meteofrance.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 53%, based on 128 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

53%

Predictions made

128

Credits staked

4,294

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 16, 2026

Closes

Aug 16, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 18, 2026

Resolution source

vigilance.meteofrance.fr

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 16, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 18, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 53% and NO 47%, based on 128 predictions and 4.3K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against vigilance.meteofrance.fr once the outcome is known.

Is “Will at least one French metropolitan département be on orange or red alert for thunderstorms on 17 August?” real-money betting?

No. “Will at least one French metropolitan département be on orange or red alert for thunderstorms on 17 August?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.