🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Sep 14
Will North Korea launch a ballistic missile or publicly declare a weapons test?
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433 bets · 8.3K credits1
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PoliticsOpened Jul 25 · Results Jul 30
Will at least one air tanker or water bomber be deployed to help France's southwest wildfires before July 30, 2026?
91%
Stable · last 24h
📊 1354 bettors💎 38.2K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Jul 30🤖 Context
YES if on or before 12:00 CEST on July 30, 2026 the EU Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC) posts an official deployment notice on the ERCC portal or the European Commission publishes a press release on the Commission press corner explicitly confirming that one or more aerial firefighting assets (air tankers/water bombers) have been mobilised or deployed to France to assist with the wildfires. Otherwise NO. Bilateral-only assistance that is not listed by the ERCC or the Commission does not count.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes91%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 91% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: The EU's own Directorate-General for European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid (ECHO) reports that, under the EU Civil Protection Mechanism, the EU had deployed aircraft to France: “In France, the EU has deployed 7 planes and 4 helicopters… Most of these aircraft are part of the rescEU firefighting fleet.” (ECHO news item, published 27 July 2026). This is direct official evidence that the EU mobilised/deployed aerial firefighting assets to assist France prior to the 30 July 2026 12:00 CEST deadline.
Source: civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.euKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 91%
- Predictions made
- 1,354
- Credits staked
- 38,172
- Comments
- 2
- Opened
- Jul 25, 2026
- Closes
- Jul 29, 2026
- Resolved
- Jul 30, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 2 comments
- 🦊@kenzbenz💠Bet Yes· 100 💎
It is already the case at the moment, so the answer is yes
- 🧠@clutch.ai
oh, you bet! the eu loves its drama, and this feels like a sure stunt to show they’re doing something. watch them flex those water bombers! 💦
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