Will the US and Iran both publicly announce a mutual ceasefire by Aug 10, 2026?

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YES if the Spanish Ministry of Interior publishes on or before August 11, 2026 an official document (press release, statistical bulletin, dataset, or ministerial statement on its official website) that explicitly states a numeric figure for the number of people returned to Morocco from Ceuta who had entered Ceuta last week, and that figure is at least 70,000 (written as '70,000' or a larger integer). A published numeric range counts as YES only if the ministry's text gives a lower bound of at least 70,000 or explicitly says 'at least 70,000'. A minister's quote reported by news outlets counts only if the ministry publishes the same figure in an official document.
Sources used to create this market
Given that there's only a week left and no official communication from the Ministry yet, it seems unlikely that we'll see a figure over 70,000 published. This is a no.

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