Will at least 1,000 people cross into Ceuta from Morocco on August 15?

🤖 Context

YES if official counts from the Guardia Civil, the Delegación del Gobierno en Ceuta, the City of Ceuta, the Spanish Ministry of the Interior, or major Spanish news organisations report that 1,000 or more people physically crossed into Spanish territory within Ceuta between 00:00 and 23:59 Ceuta local time on August 15, 2026. Crossing excludes people who only attempted entry but were repelled and did not enter. If sources disagree, priority is given to official security or government counts. Otherwise NO.

Key facts

Crowd probability

32%

Predictions made

4

Credits staked

170

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 6, 2026

Closes

Aug 14, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 16, 2026

Resolution source

efe.com