Will ashfall from Volcán de Fuego de Colima be reported in any Jalisco municipality?

🤖 Context

YES if the SMN 'Aviso Especial' for Volcán de Fuego de Colima issued at or immediately after 09:00 on August 14, 2026, or an official bulletin published the same day by SMN, CENAPRED, or UCOL‑CUEV, explicitly states that ashfall (uses wording such as Spanish “ceniza” or “caída de ceniza”, or the English “ashfall”) was observed or reported in one or more municipalities of the State of Jalisco and attributes it to Volcán de Fuego de Colima. Otherwise NO. A bulletin that only reports a satellite‑detected ash plume aloft without any statement of ashfall on the ground resolves NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 14, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 14, 2026. The outcome will be settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 43%, based on 3 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

43%

Predictions made

3

Credits staked

100

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 14, 2026

Closes

Aug 14, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 14, 2026

Resolution source

smn.conagua.gob.mx

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 14, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 14, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 43% and NO 57%, based on 3 predictions and 100 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx once the outcome is known.

Is “Will ashfall from Volcán de Fuego de Colima be reported in any Jalisco municipality?” real-money betting?

No. “Will ashfall from Volcán de Fuego de Colima be reported in any Jalisco municipality?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.