Will Tadej Pogačar win the Vuelta a España overall?

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YES if Aryna Sabalenka is not listed among the eight US Open women's singles quarterfinalists on the official US Open results page by 11:59 PM ET on September 7, 2026, otherwise NO. A pre-tournament withdrawal counts as elimination. The official US Open women's singles draw/results page or the WTA Tour draw/results page are the preferred sources, and reliable coverage (ESPN, AP, Reuters) is acceptable for corroboration.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 1, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 8, 2026. The outcome will be settled against espn.co.uk. For now, the crowd puts YES at 58%, based on 0 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the timing, Sabalenka would need to make a strong push to advance. She's not the favorite here, and injuries are a concern. I'm betting she misses the quarterfinals.

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61%
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72%
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54%
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51%
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92%
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