Will Mercedes be first in the constructors' standings after the Dutch GP on August 23?

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YES if Arthur Fils is officially recorded as the winner of the Cincinnati Western & Southern Open semi‑final match against Flavio Cobolli, meaning official sources list Fils as advancing to the tournament final. A victory awarded by retirement or by walkover counts as YES. NO if both players are recorded as not playing (double withdrawal), if no player is recorded as advancing to the final, or if the tournament is cancelled. Preferred authoritative sources are the ATP Tour official results pages or the Western & Southern Open official results. Corroboration from major outlets such as Reuters or L'Équipe is acceptable.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 22, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 23, 2026. The outcome will be settled against lequipe.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 61%, based on 28 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledArthur Fils takes this one. He has shown solid form lately and Cobolli hasn’t proven to be a major threat. All signs point to Fils advancing to the final.

94%
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53%
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35%
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40%
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96%
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39%
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