Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

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Stable · last 24h
Resolved: No
Results Aug 31The market pays yes if the ATP's official men's singles rankings published with the 'as of' date August 31, 2026 list Arthur Fils at numeric rank 1 through 10. The ATP published rankings dated August 31, 2026 and multiple sports outlets show Arthur Fils at world singles rank 11 on that date, with Taylor Fritz appearing at 10. Because Fils was ranked 11 and not inside positions 1–10 on the ATP list for that 'as of' date, the market resolves to no.
How markets are built and settled27%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 73% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: 1) Wikipedia states ATP rankings are updated weekly on Mondays (UTC) → 31 Aug 2026 (a Monday) is a scheduled rankings date. Source: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Current_tennis_rankings. 2) The ATP official rankings page lists 2026.08.31 as a selectable rankings date → there is an ATP rankings list with the ‘as of’ date 2026-08-31 to check against. Source: atptour.com/en/rankings/singles. 3) ATP’s own “Movers of the Week” article specifies changes “as of Monday 31 August 2026” → confirms that the 31 Aug 2026 rankings were published that day. Source: atptour.com/en/news/buse-pif-atp-rankings-31-august-2026. 4) On 31 Aug 2026, Tennis.com’s US Open match page shows Arthur Fils with Singles Ranking 11 → his ATP singles ranking number that day was 11, i.e., outside 1–10. Source: tennis.com/tournaments/us-open/matches/s-tsitsipas-vs-a-fils-2026-08-31. 5) Independent lists corroborate the top 10 on/for that ranking date do not include Fils: ESPN’s ATP rankings page lists Taylor Fritz 10th and Arthur Fils 11th; Olympics.com’s 31 Aug 2026 update likewise names Ben Shelton 9th and Taylor Fritz 10th, implicitly excluding Fils from the top 10. Sources: espn.com/tennis/rankings; olympics.com/en/news/atp-singles-world-rankings-complete-tennis-list-jannik-sinner-carlos-alcaraz-novak-djokovic. Conclusion: Arthur Fils was ranked 11 on the ATP rankings ‘as of’ 2026-08-31, so he was not ranked 1–10.
Source: en.wikipedia.orgSources used to resolve this market
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