Will Apple's EU App Store adopt a 5% Core Technology Commission and a 15% link-out commission on October 1?

🤖 Context

YES if Apple's publicly posted EU developer or business terms (Apple Newsroom, Apple Developer documentation, or an Apple-issued press release) explicitly state that the new commission structure, which replaces the Core Technology Fee with a 5% Core Technology Commission and sets a 15% link-out commission, is scheduled to take effect no later than 00:00 on October 1, 2026 across the European Union. Otherwise NO. If Apple announces a staggered rollout that leaves some EU member states out on that date, or Apple publicly amends the effective date, this market resolves NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 30, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against techcrunch.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 75%, based on 37 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

75%

Predictions made

37

Credits staked

650

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 19, 2026

Closes

Sep 30, 2026

Expected resolution

Oct 1, 2026

Resolution source

techcrunch.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 30, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Oct 1, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 75% and NO 25%, based on 37 predictions and 650 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against techcrunch.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Apple's EU App Store adopt a 5% Core Technology Commission and a 15% link-out commission on October 1?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Apple's EU App Store adopt a 5% Core Technology Commission and a 15% link-out commission on October 1?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.