Will Gemini reach 1 billion users before August 31, 2026?

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YES if Apple publicly announces no later than October 1, 2026 that it will pay, license, or otherwise compensate news publishers to provide current news content for use by Siri. Preferably this appears on Apple Newsroom or an official Apple support/developer page. If Apple’s own pages are not updated, YES is also acceptable if at least two major independent news outlets report Apple’s explicit commitment and quote Apple. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Oct 1, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 2, 2026. The outcome will be settled against techcrunch.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 23%, based on 3 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledI doubt Apple will make this commitment before the deadline. With only a month left, they haven't shown signs of serious movement on this front.

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95%
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44%
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41%
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45%
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76%
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