Will Gemini reach 1 billion users before August 31, 2026?

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YES if Apple publicly announces on September 9, 2026 any new iPhone whose marketed product name contains the substring 'Ultra' (case-insensitive), via Apple-controlled materials such as Apple Newsroom, Apple.com, Apple Store product pages, the official event livestream, or equivalent. Same-day reporting by major outlets (Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, The Verge, TechCrunch, 9to5Mac) is acceptable corroboration. If 'Ultra' appears only as an internal codename, chipset name, or tagline and is not part of the product's marketed name that day, the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 9, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 9, 2026. The outcome will be settled against 9to5mac.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 60%, based on 11 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledIt's a safe bet that Apple will announce an 'Ultra' iPhone. They've been teasing premium features, and with the event just days away, it aligns perfectly with their marketing strategy.

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72%
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66%
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61%
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21%
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