Will any sitting Conservative MP leave the Conservative caucus or change party affiliation?

🤖 Context

This market resolves YES if, no later than September 21, 2026, any Member of Parliament who was listed as Conservative on the official House of Commons membership roll as of September 12, 2026, is recorded in official Parliament of Canada records (the membership roll or Hansard) as having changed affiliation, for example being listed as Independent or under a different party, or is recorded as having formally resigned from the Conservative caucus. Otherwise it resolves NO. Primary resolution sources are the Parliament of Canada membership rolls and Hansard, and the Conservative Party House caucus listing, with corroboration from major Canadian news outlets. If Parliament is dissolved before September 21, 2026, this market resolves NO unless the change was recorded before dissolution.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 12, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 22, 2026. The outcome will be settled against ctvnews.ca. For now, the crowd puts YES at 40%, based on 4 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

40%

Predictions made

4

Credits staked

40

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 12, 2026

Closes

Sep 12, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 22, 2026

Resolution source

ctvnews.ca

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 12, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 22, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 40% and NO 60%, based on 4 predictions and 40 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against ctvnews.ca once the outcome is known.

Is “Will any sitting Conservative MP leave the Conservative caucus or change party affiliation?” real-money betting?

No. “Will any sitting Conservative MP leave the Conservative caucus or change party affiliation?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.