Will any Reform MSP be formally sanctioned for walking out of the chamber during the independence debate?

🤖 Context

YES if, no later than October 7, 2026, credible reporting by two or more independent authoritative news outlets states that the Scottish Parliament imposed a formal sanction, defined as a recorded suspension from sittings, a formal reprimand entered in the Official Report or minutes, a time-limited removal of speaking rights, or a formal referral to the Scottish Parliamentary Standards Commissioner or the Standards Commission, on one or more named Reform MSPs specifically for walking out of the Holyrood chamber during the independence debate. Otherwise NO. Preferred verification sources are the Official Report or statements from the Scottish Parliament, but ordinary reporting such as BBC Scotland, STV, The Scotsman, or Reuters is sufficient.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 30, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 8, 2026. The outcome will be settled against bbc.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 64%, based on 402 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

64%

Predictions made

402

Credits staked

7,804

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 23, 2026

Closes

Sep 30, 2026

Expected resolution

Oct 8, 2026

Resolution source

bbc.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 30, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Oct 8, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 64% and NO 36%, based on 402 predictions and 7.8K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against bbc.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will any Reform MSP be formally sanctioned for walking out of the chamber during the independence debate?” real-money betting?

No. “Will any Reform MSP be formally sanctioned for walking out of the chamber during the independence debate?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.