Will Amazon Leo have 400 or more satellites in orbit by Aug 31, 2026?

69%
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43%
Stable · last 24h
YES if, no later than 00:00 on August 26, 2026 Pacific Daylight Time (PDT), any official Washoe County source (for example, the Washoe County Sheriff's Office or Washoe County Emergency Management / EmergencyWashoe.com) or the Nevada state emergency authority publicly shows an active mandatory evacuation order in effect for any area of Washoe County that is explicitly attributed to the incident named 'Hawk Fire'. Only legally mandatory 'leave now' orders count. Voluntary evacuation recommendations, evacuation warnings, and shelter-in-place advisories do not count.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 26, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 26, 2026. The outcome will be settled against foxweather.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 43%, based on 0 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the urgency and ongoing threat of the 'Hawk Fire', it's likely we'll see a mandatory evacuation order in Washoe County before the deadline. Watch for updates from official sources soon.

69%
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58%
Stable · last 24h

72%
Stable · last 24h

73%
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29%
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68%
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