Will Israel and Hamas publicly agree to a ceasefire with a stated start time?

10%
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37%
Stable · last 24h
YES if, at 12:00 CEST on September 1, 2026, the Préfecture of Haute‑Garonne has at least one legally binding water‑use restriction in force anywhere in the department (for example an arrêté préfectoral or equivalent) that limits non‑priority uses such as garden watering, car washing, or non‑essential withdrawals. Otherwise NO. Authoritative sources are the Haute‑Garonne préfecture official website or the national Propluvia database. Contemporary reporting by established regional or national outlets is also acceptable. Municipal recommendations or non‑binding "vigilance" notices do not count.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 31, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against franceinfo.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 37%, based on 52 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the current situation, it’s likely that a water usage restriction will be in place by September 1st. The drought conditions and prior measures suggest a strong chance of a legal order coming through.

10%
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64%
Stable · last 24h

52%
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25%
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24%
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30%
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