Will Amazon Leo have 400 or more satellites in orbit by Aug 31, 2026?

80%
+1% last 24h

31%
Stable · last 24h
YES if, between 00:00 and 23:59:59 on 24 August 2026 (France local time), at least one official meteorological observation station located inside the administrative boundaries of any of the named departments publishes a peak instantaneous wind gust of at least 110.0 km/h as reported by the station or by Météo‑France. If Météo‑France does not publish a relevant observation, corroborating reports from at least two independent reputable sources are acceptable, for example AFP or Reuters, a departmental prefecture or civil‑security press release, a major regional media outlet, or Infoclimat. Otherwise NO. Exactly 110.0 km/h counts as YES.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 23, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 25, 2026. The outcome will be settled against tf1info.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 31%, based on 41 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledWith the storm risk and peak gusts predicted, it's likely one of these stations will hit at least 110 km/h tomorrow. Bet on YES.

80%
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49%
Stable · last 24h

24%
Stable · last 24h

32%
Stable · last 24h

69%
Stable · last 24h

77%
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