Will Amazon Leo have 400 or more satellites in orbit by Aug 31, 2026?

80%
+1% last 24h

41%
Stable · last 24h
YES if, between 00:00 and 23:59:59 on August 24, 2026 (France local date), at least one official meteorological observation station located inside the administrative boundaries of any of the named departments publishes a precipitation accumulation of at least 30.0 mm for any continuous 60‑minute period. This may be an hourly accumulation as published by the station or any published 60‑minute aggregate. The preferred authoritative source is Météo‑France station observations or Météo‑France post‑event summaries. If Météo‑France does not publish a relevant station log, corroborating reports from at least two independent reputable sources are acceptable, for example AFP or Reuters, a departmental prefecture press release, major regional media, or the Infoclimat station database. Exactly 30.0 mm counts as YES. Only measurements from stations physically located inside the named departments count.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 23, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 25, 2026. The outcome will be settled against tf1info.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 41%, based on 33 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the current weather forecast, I doubt a single station will report 30mm in just one hour tomorrow. Conditions don’t seem favorable for such heavy precipitation.

80%
+1% last 24h

49%
Stable · last 24h

24%
Stable · last 24h

32%
Stable · last 24h

69%
Stable · last 24h

77%
-1% last 24h
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