Will Amazon Leo have 400 or more satellites in orbit by Aug 31, 2026?

77%
Stable · last 24h

62%
Stable · last 24h
YES if at least one operational surface meteorological station located within the administrative boundaries of Corsica (Haute‑Corse or Corse‑du‑Sud), Alpes‑Maritimes, or Var records an instantaneous wind gust of at least 100 km/h during 22 August 2026 (00:00–23:59:59 local time, CEST/UTC+2), as shown in public station observation logs or station bulletins (for example Météo‑France) or quoted by major news organisations that cite the official station measurement. Offshore buoy or ship measurements outside the departments' land boundaries do not count. If a station's value is officially corrected below the threshold before resolution, the corrected official value is used. Otherwise the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 21, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 23, 2026. The outcome will be settled against tf1info.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 62%, based on 57 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledOui, c’est assez probable, surtout en Corse. Les dernières prévisions et bulletins de vigilance disponibles pour l’épisode orageux des 21–22 août indiquent : * En Corse, Météo-France évoque des rafales violentes de 100 à 120 km/h, voire davantage localement sous les cellules or
Given the forecast and recent wind patterns, I expect at least one station will hit that 100 km/h mark tomorrow. It's not overly ambitious considering local weather conditions.

77%
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61%
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83%
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52%
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25%
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63%
-8% last 24h
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