ScienceOpened Jul 26 · Results Jul 29

Will any official meteorological station in Andalucía record a daily high of at least 44.0 °C on July 28, 2026 (local CEST)?

56%

Stable · last 24h

📊 40 bettors💎 652 at stake

ResolvedNo

Resolved: No

Results Jul 29

🤖 Context

YES if, according to Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) official daily station observations (Valores diarios on AEMET's website or AEMET OpenData), at least one AEMET station in the Andalucía autonomous community records a daily maximum temperature (Tmax) of at least 44.0 °C for the local calendar date July 28, 2026 (00:00–23:59 CEST). Otherwise NO. If AEMET later issues an official correction withdrawing a reading, the corrected official AEMET dataset decides, and if AEMET has not published daily station values by 9:00 AM on July 29, 2026, AEMET's official daily summary or press release for that date will be used.

How markets are built and settled

How this market resolved

56%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 56% sure, and they got it wrong.

Why: AEMET's official observations page for Andalucía (Últimos datos) lists the daily station maxima for 28 julio 2026 and shows no station with a daily maximum (Tmax) ≥ 44.0 °C. The highest Tmax values shown for 28 July 2026 on that AEMET page are 40.6 °C (Baeza and Villanueva del Arzobispo) and 40.1 °C (Cazorla), so according to the AEMET daily station observations provided, no AEMET station in Andalucía reached at least 44.0 °C on 2026-07-28.

Source: aemet.es