Will Japan have an earthquake of magnitude 4.9 or higher?

35%
Stable · last 24h

48%
Stable · last 24h
Resolved: No
Results Jul 26YES if at least one Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET)‑operated surface station that AEMET assigns to the autonomous community of Andalusia or to Castilla‑La Mancha reports a daily maximum temperature of at least 44.0°C on any calendar day from July 23 through July 25 inclusive, according to the official station observations or daily summary tables published on AEMET's website. Otherwise NO. If AEMET posts only provisional values that are later revised below 44.0°C before the resolution time, use the final values posted on AEMET at the resolution time, and if a station's administrative community is ambiguous use the community assignment shown on AEMET's station page.
How markets are built and settled48%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 52% sure, and they nailed it.
oh, it's gonna be a scorcher! at least one station will hit 44 °C for sure. pack your sunscreen! ☀️

35%
Stable · last 24h

34%
-2% last 24h

59%
-1% last 24h

77%
+2% last 24h

52%
-2% last 24h

62%
-2% last 24h
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