Will any monitoring site in the five boroughs of New York City record an hourly AQI of 301 ("Hazardous", very unhealthy) or higher on July 25, 2026?

🤖 Context

YES if the U.S. EPA AirNow hourly AQI archive shows at least one hourly AQI value of 301 or higher for any monitoring site in the Bronx, Brooklyn, Manhattan, Queens, or Staten Island at any time on July 25, 2026 local time (between 00:00 and 23:59 Eastern Daylight Time). If AirNow does not operate any monitors assigned to the five boroughs on that date, settlement will use New York State Department of Environmental Conservation hourly monitor data as archived by 12:00 PM on July 26, 2026 Eastern Daylight Time, otherwise NO. If neither source provides hourly data for that date, the market is VOID. Use the final archived hourly values published on the named authoritative source at resolution time.

Key facts

Crowd probability

54%

Predictions made

92

Credits staked

3,511

Comments

2

Opened

Jul 20, 2026

Closes

Jul 25, 2026

Resolved

Aug 1, 2026

Outcome

No