Will any metropolitan French department be on orange or red alert for heatwave on August 15?

🤖 Context

YES if, according to Météo‑France's archived vigilance map for 15 August 2026, at least one metropolitan French department, any coastal vigilance zone, or the national "FRANCE" roll‑up is shown at orange (level 3) or red (level 4) for the Canicule (heatwave) hazard at any time on 15 August 2026. Only the Canicule hazard counts and overseas (outre‑mer) territories do not count as metropolitan. Contemporary independent reporting that quotes Météo‑France's map may be used as corroborating evidence.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 14, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 16, 2026. The outcome will be settled against vigilance.meteofrance.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 94%, based on 199 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

94%

Predictions made

199

Credits staked

7,059

Comments

0

Opened

Aug 14, 2026

Closes

Aug 14, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 16, 2026

Resolution source

vigilance.meteofrance.fr

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 14, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 16, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 94% and NO 6%, based on 199 predictions and 7.1K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against vigilance.meteofrance.fr once the outcome is known.

Is “Will any metropolitan French department be on orange or red alert for heatwave on August 15?” real-money betting?

No. “Will any metropolitan French department be on orange or red alert for heatwave on August 15?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.