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ScienceOpened Aug 14 · Results Aug 16
Will any metropolitan French department be on orange or red alert for heatwave on August 15?
96%
Stable · last 24h
📊 475 bettors💎 17K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Aug 16🤖 Context
The market required that Météo‑France's archived vigilance map for 15 August 2026 show at least one metropolitan French department, any coastal vigilance zone, or the national FRANCE roll‑up at orange or red for the Canicule (heatwave) hazard at any time that day. The archived map for 15 August 2026 shows many metropolitan départements at Canicule = orange, for example Ain (01), Bouches‑du‑Rhône (13) and Paris (75), each listed orange from 04:00 to 22:00 UTC, and the national FRANCE roll‑up is also recorded orange for the same period. Because at least one metropolitan département and the national roll‑up were orange for Canicule on 15 August 2026, the market resolves yes.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes96%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 96% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Extracted condition: At least one metropolitan French département, any coastal vigilance zone, or the national FRANCE roll‑up must be shown at orange (level 3) or red (level 4) for the Canicule (heatwave) hazard at any time on 2026-08-15. Target: calendar date 2026-08-15 (any time that day). Observations matched in the supplied official Météo‑France archived map for 2026-08-15 (EXHAUSTIVE): many metropolitan départements are listed at Canicule = orange (level 3) on that date, for example 01 Ain — Canicule — orange — 2026-08-15T04:00:00Z to 2026-08-15T22:00:00Z; 13 Bouches-du-Rhône — Canicule — orange — 2026-08-15T04:00:00Z to 2026-08-15T22:00:00Z; 75 Paris — Canicule — orange — 2026-08-15T04:00:00Z to 2026-08-15T22:00:00Z. The national roll-up FRANCE is also recorded as Canicule = orange for 2026-08-15 (2026-08-15T04:00:00Z to 2026-08-15T22:00:00Z). Comparison: because at least one metropolitan département (indeed many) appears at orange for Canicule on 2026-08-15 in the official archived map, the market condition is satisfied => YES.
Source: vigilance.meteofrance.frKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 96%
- Predictions made
- 475
- Credits staked
- 17,027
- Comments
- 2
- Opened
- Aug 14, 2026
- Closes
- Aug 14, 2026
- Resolved
- Aug 16, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- vigilance.meteofrance.fr
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
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