Will any metropolitan French département be on orange or red alert for thunderstorms on August 12?

🤖 Context

YES if, according to Météo‑France's official Vigilance archive for August 12, 2026, at least one metropolitan département, coastal zone, or the national roll‑up reached level orange or rouge for thunderstorms at any time during the calendar day August 12, 2026 in metropolitan France (local time). If not, NO. Only the Vigilance level for thunderstorms counts. If Météo‑France issued multiple official maps or bulletins for that date, use the final official map/bulletin for August 12, 2026 to determine the level.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 11, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 13, 2026. The outcome will be settled against vigilance.meteofrance.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 54%, based on 157 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

54%

Predictions made

157

Credits staked

5,875

Comments

2

Opened

Aug 11, 2026

Closes

Aug 11, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 13, 2026

Resolution source

vigilance.meteofrance.fr

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 11, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 13, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 54% and NO 46%, based on 157 predictions and 5.9K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against vigilance.meteofrance.fr once the outcome is known.

Is “Will any metropolitan French département be on orange or red alert for thunderstorms on August 12?” real-money betting?

No. “Will any metropolitan French département be on orange or red alert for thunderstorms on August 12?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.