Will any metropolitan French département be in 'vigilance orange' (heightened alert) or 'vigilance rouge' (maximum alert) for thunderstorms on August 28?

🤖 Context

YES if Météo‑France's official Vigilance archived map for 28 August 2026 shows at least one metropolitan French département, coastal zone, or the national roll-up at vigilance level orange (3) or red (4) for the hazard 'orages' (thunderstorms) at any time on 28 August 2026. Otherwise NO. Only metropolitan France counts, and only the 'orages' product qualifies. Wildfire ('feux de forêt') alerts do not count.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 27, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 29, 2026. The outcome will be settled against vigilance.meteofrance.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 95%, based on 184 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

95%

Predictions made

184

Credits staked

6,598

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 27, 2026

Closes

Aug 27, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 29, 2026

Resolution source

vigilance.meteofrance.fr

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 27, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 29, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 95% and NO 5%, based on 184 predictions and 6.6K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against vigilance.meteofrance.fr once the outcome is known.

Is “Will any metropolitan French département be in 'vigilance orange' (heightened alert) or 'vigilance rouge' (maximum alert) for thunderstorms on August 28?” real-money betting?

No. “Will any metropolitan French département be in 'vigilance orange' (heightened alert) or 'vigilance rouge' (maximum alert) for thunderstorms on August 28?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.