Will total area burned by wildfires in Europe in 2026 exceed 500,000 hectares?

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YES if no later than 00:00 on August 18, 2026 a Hawaii state or county government office issues and publishes an official mandatory evacuation order for any inhabited area and explicitly cites Potential‑Tropical Cyclone One‑C or its expected impacts as the cause. Evidence must be an official government press release or an announcement on an official government website, preferably corroborated by mainstream news reporting, and voluntary evacuation advisories or other non‑mandatory notices do not count. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 15, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 19, 2026. The outcome will be settled against foxweather.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 64%, based on 0 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the timeline, it's likely officials will issue a mandatory evacuation due to Potential-Tropical Cyclone One-C. The threat is real, and it's better to be safe than sorry.

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77%
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57%
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