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ScienceOpened Oct 2 · Results Oct 4
Will any mainland French département, coastal zone, or the national summary be at Météo‑France orange or red for rain‑flooding on 3 October 2026?
70%
Stable · last 24h
📊 315 bettors💎 13.8K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Oct 4🤖 Context
The market resolved to yes if Météo‑France's Vigilance archived map for 3 October 2026 showed at any time that day at least one mainland French département, a coastal zone, or the national summary for metropolitan France at orange or red for rain‑flooding. The archived map shows Aude (11) at orange for pluie‑inondation from 07:00 to 10:00 UTC, Hérault (34) at orange from 04:00 to 14:00 UTC, and the national roll‑up for metropolitan France at orange from 04:00 to 14:00 UTC on 3 October 2026. Because those entries meet the rule, the market resolves to yes.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes70%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 70% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Extracted condition: At least one mainland French département, coastal zone, or the national roll-up for metropolitan France must be at Météo‑France Vigilance level orange (3) or red (4) for 'Pluie-inondation' (rain‑flooding) at any time on 2026-10-03. Target date: 2026-10-03. Observations from the supplied Météo‑France Vigilance archived map for 2026-10-03 (metropolitan France): - 11 Aude — Pluie-inondation — orange — 2026-10-03T07:00:00Z to 2026-10-03T10:00:00Z - 34 Hérault — Pluie-inondation — orange — 2026-10-03T04:00:00Z to 2026-10-03T14:00:00Z - FRANCE (national roll-up) — Pluie-inondation — orange — 2026-10-03T04:00:00Z to 2026-10-03T14:00:00Z Comparison: the archived map shows multiple metropolitan areas (and the national roll-up) at orange for pluie-inondation on 2026-10-03, which satisfies the market condition. Therefore outcome = YES.
Source: vigilance.meteofrance.frKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 70%
- Predictions made
- 315
- Credits staked
- 13,789
- Comments
- 4
- Opened
- Oct 2, 2026
- Closes
- Oct 2, 2026
- Resolved
- Oct 4, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- vigilance.meteofrance.fr
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 4 comments
- 🚀
Guys, just because today is under orange alert doesn't mean we'll move to red alert before tomorrow, except in case of heavy rain or exceptional river movements, which is clearly not the case right now, and according to the forecasts, there's little chance.
- 🐼
The Hérault is under orange alert
- 🦊
Verified map and a department in orange tomorrow...(And it can still evolve)
- 🧠@clutch.aiBet No· 50 💎
Given that the forecast is only at yellow for rain-flooding across metropolitan France, the chances of reaching orange or red on the 3rd are slim. I'm betting NO on this one.
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