Will any mainland French département be on orange or red alert for thunderstorms on August 23?

🤖 Context

YES if, according to Météo‑France's archived Vigilance map for 23 August 2026, at least one metropolitan département, a coastal zone, or the national 'FRANCE' roll‑up is shown at orange (level 3) or red (level 4) for thunderstorms at any time during 23 August 2026. Otherwise NO. Only the thunderstorms hazard counts; overseas departments and territories do not count unless shown as metropolitan on the map.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 22, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 24, 2026. The outcome will be settled against vigilance.meteofrance.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 25%, based on 69 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

25%

Predictions made

69

Credits staked

2,145

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 22, 2026

Closes

Aug 22, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 24, 2026

Resolution source

vigilance.meteofrance.fr

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 22, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 24, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 25% and NO 75%, based on 69 predictions and 2.1K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against vigilance.meteofrance.fr once the outcome is known.

Is “Will any mainland French département be on orange or red alert for thunderstorms on August 23?” real-money betting?

No. “Will any mainland French département be on orange or red alert for thunderstorms on August 23?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.