Will tropical cyclone Karina reach Saffir‑Simpson Category 4 intensity?

84%
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60%
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YES if, no later than September 7, 2026, any Hawaii county emergency management office or the Governor publicly issues a mandatory evacuation order or mandatory evacuation proclamation that explicitly names Hurricane Lowell as the reason. Prefer official county or State of Hawaii emergency management webpages or press releases, but contemporaneous reporting by two or more independent major news organizations that quote the official order also suffices. Voluntary evacuation requests or shelter-open announcements do not count.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 8, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 8, 2026. The outcome will be settled against foxweather.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 60%, based on 1 prediction.
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84%
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57%
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74%
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55%
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68%
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69%
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