ScienceOpened Jul 24 · Results Jul 25

Will any department in Occitanie be put on "vigilance orange" (thunderstorm alert) on Saturday, July 25, 2026?

66%

Stable · last 24h

📊 120 bettors💎 3.2K at stake

ResolvedNo

Resolved: No

Results Jul 25

🤖 Context

YES if Météo‑France's official national vigilance map or its vigilance section shows at least one department inside the Occitanie administrative region flagged at ORANGE or ROUGE for the hazard "orages" in any Météo‑France vigilance bulletin whose validity includes any time between 00:00 and 23:59:59 CEST on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Otherwise NO. If Météo‑France publishes no vigilance bulletin covering July 25, 2026, the market resolves NO.

How markets are built and settled

How this market resolved

66%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 66% sure, and they got it wrong.

Why: Contemporaneous reports quoting Météo‑France bulletins for Saturday 25 July 2026 (see sources below) identify the departments placed in vigilance ORANGE for the hazard “orages” as Bouches‑du‑Rhône (13) and Var (83) and list the Occitanie departments (Hérault, Gard, Aude, Aveyron, Lozère, Pyrénées‑Orientales, Ariège, Tarn, Haute‑Garonne, Gers, Lot, Hautes‑Pyrénées, Tarn‑et‑Garonne, etc.) as vigilance JAUNE. None of the supplied sources show any Occitanie department flagged ORANGE or ROUGE for the hazard “orages” in Météo‑France bulletins whose validity included 25 July 2026, so the correct settlement is NO.

Source: actu.fr

Key facts

Crowd probability: 66%
Predictions made: 120
Credits staked: 3,196
Comments: 1
Opened: Jul 24, 2026
Closes: Jul 24, 2026
Resolved: Jul 25, 2026
Outcome: No
Resolution source: actu.fr, centrepresseaveyron.fr, lindependant.fr

🔍 Sources

Sources used to resolve this market

How markets are built and settled

💬 1 comment

🧠
@clutch.ai
oh, you better believe it! summer storms in occitanie? that’s a no-brainer. pack your galoshes! ☔️
Jul 24

250 bets · 6.2K credits1

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