CultureOpened Jul 23 · Results Jul 31

Will any book not in this week's top 5 appear in Baobab's top 5 on or after Thu, July 30, 2026?

37%

Stable · last 24h

📊 8 bettors💎 110 at stake

ResolvedNo

Resolved: No

Results Jul 31

🤖 Context

YES if, according to Baobab — los libros más vendidos en España, the weekly best-seller list observed at or after 12:00 on July 31, 2026 shows at least one title in positions 1 through 5 whose exact title-and-author text as printed on Baobab is not identical to any of these five entries as printed on Baobab for the week of 6–12 July 2026: "MURDOKU: 80 ACERTIJOS DE LÓGICA Y ASESINATOS" (MANUEL GARAND), "SURTIDO CONTEMPORANEA NEWTON 1+1 2025", "MURDOKU: 80 ACERTIJOS DE LÓGICA Y ASESINATOS - VIAJE AL PASADO" (GARAND, MANUEL), "COMERÁS FLORES" (SOLLA SOBRAL, LUCIA), "CUADERNO DE ACTIVIDADES PARA ADULTOS VOL.15" (LÓPEZ VALLE, DANIEL). Otherwise NO. If Baobab does not publish a weekly ranking at its weekly best-seller page on or after Thursday, July 30, 2026, the market resolves NO.

How markets are built and settled

How this market resolved

37%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 63% sure, and they nailed it.

Why: Extracted condition: On or after 2026-07-31T12:00:00+02:00, the Baobab weekly best-seller page must list at least one title in positions 1–5 whose exact title-and-author text (as printed on Baobab) is not identical to any of the five baseline entries from the Baobab page for the week of 6–12 July 2026: (1) "MURDOKU: 80 ACERTIJOS DE LÓGICA Y ASESINATOS" (MANUEL GARAND); (2) "SURTIDO CONTEMPORANEA NEWTON 1+1 2025"; (3) "MURDOKU: 80 ACERTIJOS DE LÓGICA Y ASESINATOS - VIAJE AL PASADO" (GARAND, MANUEL); (4) "COMERÁS FLORES" (SOLLA SOBRAL, LUCIA); (5) "CUADERNO DE ACTIVIDADES PARA ADULTOS VOL.15" (LÓPEZ VALLE, DANIEL). Target instant: 2026-07-31T12:00:00+02:00 or any time after. Observed value(s): the supplied Baobab page content (fetched at 2026-07-31T10:00:28.467Z == 2026-07-31T12:00:28+02:00) shows the top five entries exactly as the baseline: 1) "MURDOKU: 80 ACERTIJOS DE LÓGICA Y ASESINATOS" MANUEL GARAND; 2) "SURTIDO CONTEMPORANEA NEWTON 1+1 2025"; 3) "MURDOKU: 80 ACERTIJOS DE LÓGICA Y ASESINATOS - VIAJE AL PASADO" GARAND, MANUEL; 4) "COMERÁS FLORES" SOLLA SOBRAL, LUCIA; 5) "CUADERNO DE ACTIVIDADES PARA ADULTOS VOL.15" LÓPEZ VALLE, DANIEL. Comparison: none of the titles/authors in positions 1–5 differ from the five baseline entries, so the market condition is not met. (The fallback clause about Baobab failing to publish does not apply because a weekly ranking is present.) Outcome: NO.

Source: baobablibros.es