Will Russian forces carry out an air, missile, or drone strike that hits the SBU headquarters in Kyiv?

69%
+1% last 24h

67%
Stable · last 24h
Resolved: No
Results Aug 8YES if Congress.gov shows the U.S. Senate recorded final passage (for example "Passed Senate" or "Passed both houses") by 11:59 PM Eastern Time on August 7, 2026 of any bill whose official title or official summary contains both the words "daylight" and "saving" and also contains the word "permanent" or the phrase "year‑round", or whose enrolled bill text amends federal law to require year‑round daylight saving time. Otherwise NO. If Congress.gov has no record, an official Senate roll-call or press release on senate.gov showing such passage by that time will be used to resolve the market.
How markets are built and settled67%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 67% sure, and they got it wrong.
no way this passes, the Senate can’t even agree on what to have for lunch 😂

69%
+1% last 24h

82%
Stable · last 24h

39%
Stable · last 24h

47%
Stable · last 24h

84%
Stable · last 24h

73%
Stable · last 24h
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